Analysis: Oil ties will prevent Sudan war, despite posturing (Reuters)

JUBA (Reuters) ? A suspected Sudanese air strike on a refugee camp in South Sudan will not trigger a return to war but belligerent posturing on both sides will complicate and slow talks over oil transit fees and other sensitive disputes.

Juba and the United Nations accused Sudan of bombing Yida camp in Unity State last week, plunging north-south relations to the lowest point since the South seceded in July, the culmination a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war.

Khartoum has repeatedly denied the charges and accused the South of backing rebels in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, two war-stricken states on the northern side of the tense and poorly demarcated border.

Analysts say the tensions may make it harder for the two to agree on a transit fee to pump the South's oil through Sudan's pipelines, contested border areas, transitional financial assistance and debt - all issues left unresolved at the split.

Degenerating relations may also make it less likely the two will soon find a compromise for the disputed border region of Abyei that Khartoum seized in May after an attack on an army convoy blamed on southern troops.

"If the conflict were to get any worse ... obviously in the immediate term that would have a negative impact on the negotiations," Chris Phillips at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London said.

"They're not in a good place now anyway, so they would deteriorate even further."

Sudan and South Sudan are expected to resume oil talks next week in Ethiopia after negotiations collapsed over the summer. In the past week both sides have ratcheted up their rhetoric.

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes in Sudan's western Darfur region, says he is ready to return to war.

His southern counterpart, Salva Kiir, has warned of Sudan's "pending invasion" and the possibility of an oil war.

LITTLE APPETITE FOR WAR

But despite the bellicose pronouncements, decades of brutal civil war have left citizens on both sides of the border with little appetite for renewed combat.

Sitting on a plastic garden chair in the dappled shade of his barracks in Bentiu, the deputy commander of the army in the South's Unity state Mangar Buong said his country knew only too well the "colors of war."

"On our side, we believe in peace ... we are now just for our own self-defense," he said, a selection of mobile phones fanned out on the table in front of him. "In northern Sudan we want them also to be in peace."

Perhaps the biggest factor preventing a slide into full-scale war is a shared interest in the continued flow of oil, which comes mostly from the South but reaches clients through a pipeline to the Red Sea terminal in Port Sudan.

"Their mutual reliance on oil was the single greatest disincentive to a new war in Sudan," said Zach Vertin, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, referring to the interim period between the peace agreement and secession.

"That's still the case. But now that the South is selling its own oil and talks have yet to produce a deal, that dynamic may be changing," he said.

That does not rule out the possibility that the two sides could continue to wage a damaging proxy war through rebel militias on both sides of the border, further undermining confidence and hampering talks, analysts say.

Sudan and South Sudan regularly accuse one another of backing insurgencies in their territory, and just as often deny the other's accusation.

Sudan's army is fighting the Sudan People's Liberation Army-North (SPLA-N) on its side of the border, while militias under the umbrella of the South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) have attacked towns in the South's Unity and Upper Nile states.

Many of the SSLA's ranking officers were members of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) prior to the secession, and some of their commanders live in Khartoum.

Sudan denies the South's assertion that the SAF is supplying them with training, a rear base, facilitating weapons transfers and supplying mines that have killed dozens in recent months. Arms experts suspect otherwise.

Some experts also question Juba's statements that South Sudan's army has no connections to SPLA-N units fighting the Sudanese army in South Kordodan and Blue Nile.

HIT-AND-RUN

Any low-level, hit-and-run attack on the oil fields by these rebel groups would have a serious impact on production, because it would lead to an evacuation of expatriate oil workers, without whom the rigs cannot function.

South Sudan says that 1,300 Sudanese oil workers pulled out of Unity state at independence, leaving a skeleton staff of just 300 expatriates and a handful of South Sudanese to keep oil flowing.

Production in Unity state is already down 25 percent against pre-independence levels, an official said last week.

For now, oil fields are unlikely to become a target because the SSLA's interests appear aligned to Khartoum, said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin from political risk consultancy Control Risks.

"As long as the two Sudans share oil revenues, the northern government and its proxies will have no interest in disrupting oil production," Gallopin said.

When the South seceded, it took with it three-quarters of the roughly 500,000 barrel per day oil production, causing Khartoum to ask Arab central banks for $4 billion to prop up its economy this year.

"For both sides, they need to decide if they can actually afford a new war. Who is going to pay for it? Khartoum are broke," said Phillips at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

(Reporting by Hereward Holland; Editing by Ulf Laessing and Alexander Dziadosz)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/africa/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111118/wl_nm/us_sudan_south

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Aerial 3D: Amazing System Shows 3D Objects In Mid-Air, With No Screen (Video)

burton 3d featSince 2006, Tokyo-based Burton has been working on Aerial 3D, a technology that makes it possible to produce pictures in 3D in mid-air or underwater - without using a screen (that's what I call "True 3D Technology" indeed). Burton says their laser-based system is the only one of its kind. The current system projects objects at 50,000 dots per second and with a frame rate of 10-15. The Aerial 3D works by focusing laser light, producing "plasma excitation from the oxygen and nitrogen in the air".

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/JzxpAWdAuqA/

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Study: Kids as social media savvy as adults by 13

AVG Digital Diaries

By Athima Chansanchai

A recent survey of 4,000 parents found that 11 is the age at which they would allow their children to enter into the world of social media, a full two years before Facebook officially allows them to be a part of the giant social network.

The survey, conducted by AVG for the fourth installation of its Digital Diaries study, revealed 53 percent of those polled in the U.S. said their kids were already on Facebook and Twitter as early tweens: 11.

By the time they're 13, they're old hands at posting status updates, tweeting and uploading pictures for their friends.

Live Poll

At what age would you allow your child on Facebook?

  • 167881

    18. They're my child until then and I don't want them on the site.

    18%

  • 167882

    15. They're in high school now and I trust them to make the right choices. They have to learn.

    43%

  • 167883

    13, when Facebook allows it.

    25%

  • 167884

    11. They're ready now and I'm supervising them.

    14%

  • 167885

    9. My child can handle this now.

    0%

VoteTotal Votes: 28

They get help from their parents, it seems, unless they're saving up to buy their own computers and phones.

For this study, AVG surveyed parents of 10 to 13-year-olds during the week of September 12 from the following countries: the U.S., Canada, UK, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.?

AVG found that a majority of 10-13 year old kids in every country (except New Zealand) and Japan have their own PC. For the most part, the computers are also in their bedrooms, especially In the UK. Aussies, though, like their computers to be out in the open, in the living room.

But today's kids don't just need PCs to go online?? they have phones.?

The survey founds 44 percent of 10 to 13-year-olds access social networks from their phones and in the U.S., that figure jumps to 56 percent.

Parents are, however, say they are being vigilant in their supervision, with?60 percent of those polled admitting they are looking at their kids' PCs. Two-thirds of the parents surveyed said they know their child's passwords, with six out of 10 checking out their PCs when they're not on them.?

Despite this, the AVG study "shows that kids are increasingly able to circumvent parental supervision."

To counter those acts of insubordination and independence-building, AVG has recommendations that include parents educating their children about clicking onto potentially dangerous links (on PCs and smartphones), remaining vigilant over their web surfing and installing software (and apps) that help monitor not only where their children are, but what they are doing online.

To see AVG's infographic that illustrates more of the study, it's below:

AVG Digital Diaries

More stories:

Check out Technolog on?Facebook, and on Twitter, follow?Athima Chansanchai, who is also trying to keep her head above water in the?Google+?stream.

Source: http://digitallife.today.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/15/8819806-survey-most-kids-are-as-social-media-savvy-as-adults-by-13

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Rick Perry's 'dangerously unsound' plan for a part-time Congress (The Week)

New York ? The struggling GOP presidential hopeful wants to overhaul Washington, but critics are quick to ridicule his plan to slash lawmaker pay and hours

On Tuesday, in an apparent bid to rescue his faltering presidential campaign, Republican Rick Perry proposed a radical plan to "uproot and overhaul Washington." Perry wants to cut in half the time members of Congress spend in the capital, and slash their pay by as much as three-quarters. The Texas governor also pledged to reform the judiciary by ending lifetime appointments for judges ? including those on the Supreme Court. There appears to be little chance that Perry could ever enact such far-reaching changes. But should we take them seriously?

These are "terrible" ideas: Perry's plan to turn the demands of being a congressman into a part-time job is "dangerously unsound," says Matthew Yglesias at ThinkProgress. Forcing elected officials to get day jobs would make them more susceptible to corruption, not less. It would also be a drain on their time, leaving them more dependent than ever on lobbyists to provide information on pending bills.
"Rick Perry's terrible plan for congressional reform"

But Washington does need new blood: You have to "admire the way Rick is willing to stir the pot," says Robert Stacy McCain at The Other McCain. And he's right about one thing: "With enough fresh blood and reduced incumbency, the Congress could move closer to serving the people, and resemble less an obnoxious aristocracy." But Perry's idea for making that happen is pure fantasy ? it's "not going to mean much in the real world."
"Aw, c'mon, Gov. Perry"

Regardless, this could be campaign gold: Perry's reform pitch could work wonders for him, says Britain's Daily Mail. His call for a "part-time citizen Congress" may appeal to primary voters who are suspicious of "career politicians," and his opposition to lifetime judicial appointments will go over well with "conservatives who deplore activist judges." If nothing else, Perry might get people talking about something other than his disastrous brain-freeze at last week's debate.
"Perry promises government overhaul in latest make-or-break media offensive to overcome 'oops' moment"

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Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/politicsopinion/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/theweek/20111116/cm_theweek/221474

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